Armenia’s Turning Tide: Pro EU Victory and the Cracks Beneath Pashinyan’s Throne

The morning air in Yerevan carried a strange electricity. Not the bitter chill of winter, but something deeper, political, charged. Crowds gathered in Republic Square, waving blue and yellow flags alongside the Armenian tricolor. A pro European wave had just swept through the parliamentary elections, and the message was clear: Armenians wanted a future tied to Brussels, not Moscow. But beneath the euphoria, a quieter and more dangerous pulse beat. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, once the hero of the Velvet Revolution, was watching his political capital evaporate. The victory of the pro EU wing was real, but so was the internal crisis that gnawed at the nation’s foundations.

To understand this moment, one must rewind to 2018. Pashinyan was the face of change, a former journalist who led peaceful protests against corruption and the entrenched ruling elite. He promised transparency, democracy, and a break from the old system. For a time, he delivered. But the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020 shattered that promise. A devastating defeat, a humiliating ceasefire, and the loss of territory left deep scars. Armenians felt betrayed. The man who had promised strength had overseen a collapse. That defeat was the first crack. Since then, the crack has widened into a chasm.

The Rise of the Pro EU Wing

The recent electoral surge of pro European parties is not just a vote for the West. It is a vote against Pashinyan’s perceived failures and against the lingering influence of Russia. Many Armenians blame Moscow for not intervening in the 2020 war, and for the humiliating terms of the ceasefire that followed. The European Union, with its promise of investment, visa liberalization, and political support, offers an alternative. The pro EU wing, led by figures who are vocal about Armenia’s European destiny, capitalized on this disillusionment. They ran on a platform of integration, reform, and a clean break from the post Soviet orbit. And they won. But winning is one thing. Governing is another.

Pashinyan’s Waning Star

The RSS content states plainly: “Pashinyan has increasingly less popular support.” This is not a sudden development. It is the result of a slow erosion. Economic troubles weigh heavily. Inflation, unemployment, and a stagnant economy have left ordinary Armenians struggling. The government’s response has been seen as inadequate. Meanwhile, Pashinyan’s style of governance has grown more authoritarian. Critics accuse him of muzzling the press, consolidating power, and ignoring the rule of law. The very principles he once championed are now questioned. His approval ratings have sunk below 30 percent, a stark contrast to the 80 percent he enjoyed at his peak. The pro EU victory is not his victory. It is a rebuke. He remains in power, but his authority is hollow.

The Internal Crisis Deepens

Behind the headlines of a pro EU triumph lies a messy reality: Armenia is politically fractured. The pro EU coalition is itself a fragile alliance of different parties with competing agendas. There are liberal democrats, nationalists, and even some former oligarchs who have rebranded themselves as reformers. Their unity is based on opposition to Pashinyan, but they lack a cohesive vision for the future. Meanwhile, the old guard, loyal to Russia, is not gone. They control key sectors of the economy and retain influence in the military and security services. The result is a tug of war. The government cannot rule effectively. Protests erupt regularly, sometimes for or against the government, sometimes over bread and butter issues. The parliament is gridlocked. The constitution itself is being debated, with calls for a parliamentary system to replace the current semi presidential model. These are not small disagreements. They are existential debates about Armenia’s identity and direction.

A Geopolitical Tightrope

Armenia sits at a crossroads, both geographically and politically. The pro EU victory alarms Russia, which still considers Armenia part of its sphere of influence. Moscow has leverage: energy supplies, military bases, and a security alliance that Armenia is still part of. The European Union offers soft power, but not hard security guarantees. Armenia cannot simply turn its back on Russia. The Nagorno Karabakh region remains a volatile flashpoint, with Azerbaijan emboldened by its 2020 victory and Turkey watching closely. The pro EU camp must navigate this trilemma: they want European integration without provoking Russian retaliation, and they want security without sacrificing sovereignty. It is a delicate dance, and one misstep could trigger a crisis.

The Human Element

But politics is not just about parties and power. It is about people. In the cafes of Yerevan, in the markets of Gyumri, in the villages of Syunik, Armenians are worried. They see their leaders divided, their economy fragile, and their borders tense. The youth, who dreamed of a European future, now wonder if that future will ever come. The older generation remembers Soviet stability and fears the chaos of transition. The diaspora, with its money and influence, watches from afar, torn between hope and despair. The story of Armenia today is a story of a small nation caught between empires, trying to forge its own path. The pro EU victory is a hopeful chapter, but it is not the end. The internal crisis is the real plot.

What Comes Next

Pashinyan’s days may be numbered, but it is not clear what comes after. The opposition is united against him, but divided about everything else. New elections could bring a different government, but the same underlying problems will remain. The economy needs reforms that require political stability. The security situation requires careful diplomacy. The society needs healing. The pro EU wing must prove that it can govern, not just campaign. They must deliver tangible benefits to a weary population. If they fail, the pendulum could swing back to the old guard, or worse, to populism and extremism. The internal crisis will not resolve itself. It requires leadership, compromise, and a vision that transcends personal ambition.

Conclusion

The sun sets over Mount Ararat, a symbol of Armenian endurance. The election results are in, the celebrations have faded. What remains is the hard work of building a nation. The pro EU victory is a sign of hope, but Armenia’s internal crisis is a warning. Pashinyan’s fall from grace is a cautionary tale about the fragility of revolution. The future is uncertain, but Armenians have survived for centuries. They know that change is slow, and political seasons turn. For now, the world watches as this small country at the crossroads of empires tries to chart a new course. The story is not over. It is just beginning.